悟已往之不谏，知来者之可追。实迷途其未远，觉今是而昨非。
Writes and Write-Nots 写与不写
I'm usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won't be many people who can write.\ 我通常不愿意对技术做出预测，但我对这个预测相当有信心：几十年后，会写作的人将不多。
One of the strangest things you learn if you're a writer is how many people have trouble writing. Doctors know how many people have a mole they're worried about; people who are good at setting up computers know how many people aren't; writers know how many people need help writing.\ 如果你是一名作家，你会了解到的最奇怪的事情之一就是有多少人在写作上遇到困难。医生知道有多少人有一颗担心的痣；擅长设置电脑的人知道有多少人不擅长；作家知道有多少人需要写作帮助。
The reason so many people have trouble writing is that it's fundamentally difficult. To write well you have to think clearly, and thinking clearly is hard.\ 很多人在写作上遇到困难的原因在于写作从根本上就很困难。要想写出好文章，就必须思路清晰，而思路清晰是很难的。
And yet writing pervades many jobs, and the more prestigious the job, the more writing it tends to require.\ 然而，写作充斥着许多工作，而且越是声名显赫的工作，往往越需要写作。
These two powerful opposing forces, the pervasive expectation of writing and the irreducible difficulty of doing it, create enormous pressure. This is why eminent professors often turn out to have resorted to plagiarism. The most striking thing to me about these cases is the pettiness of the thefts. The stuff they steal is usually the most mundane boilerplate — the sort of thing that anyone who was even halfway decent at writing could turn out with no effort at all. Which means they're not even halfway decent at writing.\ 无处不在的写作期望和难以克服的写作困难，这两种强大的对立力量造成了巨大的压力。这就是为什么知名教授经常被发现抄袭的原因。在这些案件中，最让我震惊的是偷窃行为的卑劣。他们剽窃的东西通常都是最普通的模板--任何一个写作水平还算过得去的人都能不费吹灰之力写出这样的东西。也就是说，他们连半点写作水平都没有。
Till recently there was no convenient escape valve for the pressure created by these opposing forces. You could pay someone to write for you, like JFK, or plagiarize, like MLK, but if you couldn't buy or steal words, you had to write them yourself. And as a result nearly everyone who was expected to write had to learn how.\ 直到最近，对于这些对立力量所造成的压力，还没有方便的解脱阀门。你可以花钱请人代笔，比如肯尼迪；也可以剽窃别人的作品，比如马丁-路德-金。因此，几乎所有需要写作的人都必须学会如何写作。
Not anymore. AI has blown this world open. Almost all pressure to write has dissipated. You can have AI do it for you, both in school and at work.\ 现在不一样了。人工智能打开了这个世界。几乎所有的写作压力都已消散。无论是在学校还是在工作中，你都可以让人工智能代劳。
The result will be a world divided into writes and write-nots. There will still be some people who can write. Some of us like it. But the middle ground between those who are good at writing and those who can't write at all will disappear. Instead of good writers, ok writers, and people who can't write, there will just be good writers and people who can't write.\ 结果将是一个分为能写和不能写的世界。仍然会有一些人会写作。我们中的一些人喜欢写作。但擅长写作的人和完全不会写作的人之间的中间地带将消失。好作家、一般作家和不会写作的人将会消失，取而代之的是好作家和不会写作的人。
Is that so bad? Isn't it common for skills to disappear when technology makes them obsolete? There aren't many blacksmiths left, and it doesn't seem to be a problem.\ 这很糟糕吗？当技术过时时，技能消失不是很常见吗？铁匠已经所剩无几，这似乎并不是什么问题。
Yes, it's bad. The reason is something I mentioned earlier: writing is thinking. In fact there's a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing. You can't make this point better than Leslie Lamport did:\ 是的，这很糟糕。原因就是我前面提到的：写作就是思考。事实上，有一种思考只有通过写作才能完成。莱斯利-兰波特（Leslie Lamport）说得再好不过了： If you're thinking without writing, you only think you're thinking.\ 如果你只思考而不写作，你只会认为自己在思考。
So a world divided into writes and write-nots is more dangerous than it sounds. It will be a world of thinks and think-nots. I know which half I want to be in, and I bet you do too.\ 因此，一个分为 "写" 和 "不写" 的世界比听起来更危险。这将是一个充满思想和没有思想的世界。我知道我想在哪一半，我打赌你也知道。
This situation is not unprecedented. In preindustrial times most people's jobs made them strong. Now if you want to be strong, you work out. So there are still strong people, but only those who choose to be.\ 这种情况并非没有先例。在前工业时代，大多数人的工作使他们变得强壮。现在，如果你想变得强壮，你就得锻炼身体。因此，仍然有强壮的人，但只是那些选择强壮的人。
It will be the same with writing. There will still be smart people, but only those who choose to be.\ 写作也将如此。聪明人还是会有的，但只是那些选择聪明的人。
via 简悦花园
I'm usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won't be many people who can write.\ 我通常不愿意对技术做出预测，但我对这个预测相当有信心：几十年后，会写作的人将不多。
One of the strangest things you learn if you're a writer is how many people have trouble writing. Doctors know how many people have a mole they're worried about; people who are good at setting up computers know how many people aren't; writers know how many people need help writing.\ 如果你是一名作家，你会了解到的最奇怪的事情之一就是有多少人在写作上遇到困难。医生知道有多少人有一颗担心的痣；擅长设置电脑的人知道有多少人不擅长；作家知道有多少人需要写作帮助。
The reason so many people have trouble writing is that it's fundamentally difficult. To write well you have to think clearly, and thinking clearly is hard.\ 很多人在写作上遇到困难的原因在于写作从根本上就很困难。要想写出好文章，就必须思路清晰，而思路清晰是很难的。
And yet writing pervades many jobs, and the more prestigious the job, the more writing it tends to require.\ 然而，写作充斥着许多工作，而且越是声名显赫的工作，往往越需要写作。
These two powerful opposing forces, the pervasive expectation of writing and the irreducible difficulty of doing it, create enormous pressure. This is why eminent professors often turn out to have resorted to plagiarism. The most striking thing to me about these cases is the pettiness of the thefts. The stuff they steal is usually the most mundane boilerplate — the sort of thing that anyone who was even halfway decent at writing could turn out with no effort at all. Which means they're not even halfway decent at writing.\ 无处不在的写作期望和难以克服的写作困难，这两种强大的对立力量造成了巨大的压力。这就是为什么知名教授经常被发现抄袭的原因。在这些案件中，最让我震惊的是偷窃行为的卑劣。他们剽窃的东西通常都是最普通的模板--任何一个写作水平还算过得去的人都能不费吹灰之力写出这样的东西。也就是说，他们连半点写作水平都没有。
Till recently there was no convenient escape valve for the pressure created by these opposing forces. You could pay someone to write for you, like JFK, or plagiarize, like MLK, but if you couldn't buy or steal words, you had to write them yourself. And as a result nearly everyone who was expected to write had to learn how.\ 直到最近，对于这些对立力量所造成的压力，还没有方便的解脱阀门。你可以花钱请人代笔，比如肯尼迪；也可以剽窃别人的作品，比如马丁-路德-金。因此，几乎所有需要写作的人都必须学会如何写作。
Not anymore. AI has blown this world open. Almost all pressure to write has dissipated. You can have AI do it for you, both in school and at work.\ 现在不一样了。人工智能打开了这个世界。几乎所有的写作压力都已消散。无论是在学校还是在工作中，你都可以让人工智能代劳。
The result will be a world divided into writes and write-nots. There will still be some people who can write. Some of us like it. But the middle ground between those who are good at writing and those who can't write at all will disappear. Instead of good writers, ok writers, and people who can't write, there will just be good writers and people who can't write.\ 结果将是一个分为能写和不能写的世界。仍然会有一些人会写作。我们中的一些人喜欢写作。但擅长写作的人和完全不会写作的人之间的中间地带将消失。好作家、一般作家和不会写作的人将会消失，取而代之的是好作家和不会写作的人。
Is that so bad? Isn't it common for skills to disappear when technology makes them obsolete? There aren't many blacksmiths left, and it doesn't seem to be a problem.\ 这很糟糕吗？当技术过时时，技能消失不是很常见吗？铁匠已经所剩无几，这似乎并不是什么问题。
Yes, it's bad. The reason is something I mentioned earlier: writing is thinking. In fact there's a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing. You can't make this point better than Leslie Lamport did:\ 是的，这很糟糕。原因就是我前面提到的：写作就是思考。事实上，有一种思考只有通过写作才能完成。莱斯利-兰波特（Leslie Lamport）说得再好不过了： If you're thinking without writing, you only think you're thinking.\ 如果你只思考而不写作，你只会认为自己在思考。
So a world divided into writes and write-nots is more dangerous than it sounds. It will be a world of thinks and think-nots. I know which half I want to be in, and I bet you do too.\ 因此，一个分为 "写" 和 "不写" 的世界比听起来更危险。这将是一个充满思想和没有思想的世界。我知道我想在哪一半，我打赌你也知道。
This situation is not unprecedented. In preindustrial times most people's jobs made them strong. Now if you want to be strong, you work out. So there are still strong people, but only those who choose to be.\ 这种情况并非没有先例。在前工业时代，大多数人的工作使他们变得强壮。现在，如果你想变得强壮，你就得锻炼身体。因此，仍然有强壮的人，但只是那些选择强壮的人。
It will be the same with writing. There will still be smart people, but only those who choose to be.\ 写作也将如此。聪明人还是会有的，但只是那些选择聪明的人。
via 简悦花园
